CBA: Australia’s economy will slow down sharply(June 9)

Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), said there was a 50 per cent risk of a recession in Australia. Central to the forecast is flat real household consumption for the remainder of the year and a lag in the impact of RBA rate hikes. He expects Australia’s unemployment rate to climb further from the current 3.7% to 4.4% during the year, and reach 4.7% by mid-2024; the official cash rate is expected to rise from the current 4.10% to a peak of 4.35%. He added that the current monetary policy is very strict, which means that the economy will slow down significantly from now on.