The EUR/USD pair opened the week with a modest gain, supported by a softer US Dollar (USD), but the upside momentum remains tentative as the pair trades below the key 1.1200 level during the Asian session.
Technically, last week’s decisive break below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart has reinforced bearish sentiment among traders. Coupled with mildly negative oscillators on both the 4-hour and daily charts, the prevailing technical setup suggests that the pair’s path of least resistance remains downward. As a result, any rally beyond the 1.1200 threshold is likely to face selling pressure near the 1.1275–1.1280 zone.
However, should buyers manage to push the pair above 1.1300, this would invalidate the bearish bias and likely trigger a short-covering rally. Such a move could propel EUR/USD to retake the 1.1400 level, with further momentum targeting resistance at 1.1430 and potentially challenging the psychological 1.1500 mark. The pair may even test the multi-year peak near 1.1570 reached in April.
On the downside, immediate support is seen around 1.1130, followed by the 1.1100 psychological level and the monthly swing low near 1.1080. A decisive break below 1.1080 would confirm the bearish outlook, opening the door for a sharper decline toward the crucial 1.1000 psychological support.
In summary, while the softer US Dollar provides some short-term lift to the Euro, technical indicators favor further downside unless significant bullish momentum emerges above key resistance levels.
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