The Fed’s rate hike cycle may not be over yet

On the one hand, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized that monetary policy is determined by data, and the recent US economic data has been mixed and failed to clearly indicate the future monetary policy prospects; Monetary policy has certain constraints. The Fed‘s current priority is still to fight inflation. From the point of view of inflation data, although US inflation is still in the downward channel, the downward slope has slowed down. In terms of the labor market, the U.S. non-agricultural employment in May increased by 45,000 to 339,000 from the previous month, indicating that the labor market is still resilient; the U.S. non-agricultural unemployment rate in May increased by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month to 3.7%, which is the same as the newly added The non-agricultural data deviated somewhat, and it remains to be seen whether the US job market will cool down.