Goldman sees USD/TRY rising to 28 in 12 months(June 5)

Goldman Sachs analysts raised their forecasts for USD/TRY against the Turkish lira in three, six and 12 months, citing increased pressure on the currency. Analysts currently expect 23 USD/TL in 3 months and 25 in 6 months (previously 21). Given the pressure on the lira, “the question now is when, rather than if, the lira will depreciate significantly,” and the probability of a one-off adjustment has increased. Summer tourism receipts may help authorities delay a sharp adjustment to foreign exchange, but they may also “choose to bring forward the adjustment as municipal elections are approaching”.