Deutsche Bank: Still expects U.S. recession to start in Q4

Deutsche Bank said on May 17 that aggressive interest rate hikes will cause the U.S. bond yield to invert, causing the U.S. economy to fall into a recession with a certain lag, rather than a soft landing.

Right now, nearly all leading indicators point to a U.S. recession before the end of the year. One of the key indicators was the inversion of 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields in March last year, the last signal that the long recession countdown began. Considering that U.S. bond yields have been inverted for such a long time, it must have affected future economic activity.