It is expected that the seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate in the United States in December is expected to record -0.2% (previous value 0.1%), and the annual rate is recorded at 6.3% (previous value 7.1%). The core CPI is expected to record a monthly rate of 0.3% (previous value 0.2%) and an annual rate of 5.7% (previous value 6.0%). A seasonally adjusted drop in energy prices likely contributed to a 0.5% decline in the monthly headline figure. U.S. gasoline prices were set to fall 9.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis, as supply concerns eased and unseasonably warm weather lowered household utility prices.
Businesses are expected to restore inventories to levels more in balance with falling demand by the end of the first half of 2023, after which the deflationary contribution of commodity categories will weaken. Monthly data on housing inflation may have peaked.
Year-over-year increases in prime resident rents and landlord-equivalent rents are expected to continue through late spring.