In the Asian session on Wednesday (December 21), the latest price of the US dollar index was 104.05, and the opening price was 103.96. With the Federal Reserve aggressively raising interest rates this year, economists expect the price index measured by personal consumption expenditures (PCE) to ease in 2023, but it will still not be enough to achieve the Fed‘s 2% inflation target.
Forecasts show that the year-on-year growth rate of the PCE price index in the four quarters of next year may reach 4.6%, 3.5%, 3.1% and 2.8% respectively. After excluding the volatile food and energy prices, the core PCE price index may come to 4.2%, 3.8%, 3.4% and 3% respectively. This also indicates that the Federal Reserve may further tighten monetary policy in 2023 and maintain interest rates at a high level for a long period of time. In addition, economists expect the U.S. job market to weaken in 2023 along with the economic downturn, the number of jobs will decline in the second and third quarters, and the unemployment rate may peak at 4.9% in the first quarter of 2024.
The short-term resistance of the US dollar index is 104.55–104.60, and the important short-term resistance is 105.15–105.20.
