Deutsche Bank: UK will inevitably fall into recession

Looking ahead, we remain more pessimistic about the outlook for the UK economy. With global growth slowing, confidence souring, inflation continuing to rise and rising interest rates further squeezing disposable incomes, the UK economy will almost inevitably slip into recession. We continue to forecast that the economy will shrink by 0.5% next year. However, as our forecast does not take into account fiscal consolidation measures of 2% of GDP, growth is skewed to the downside, especially for the next two years.