The Indian Rupee (INR) trades with mild losses on Friday, weighed down by month-end US Dollar (USD) demand, foreign fund outflows, and weak regional cues. Investor sentiment remains subdued as US President Donald Trump’s recent tariff announcements spark volatility in global markets, boosting the Greenback’s appeal.
Despite the INR’s weakness, any sharp depreciation is likely to be capped by potential Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervention in the foreign exchange market via USD sales. Traders are closely watching India’s fourth-quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, with forecasts pointing to 6.2% growth, according to Bloomberg’s median estimate. Meanwhile, the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index—an inflation gauge favored by the Federal Reserve—is due later on Friday, alongside a speech by Fed official Thomas Barkin.
Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, stated, “We expect the Rupee to trade with a negative bias amid weakness in domestic markets and continued foreign institutional investor outflows. However, lower crude oil prices and RBI intervention could offer some support.”
USD/INR Technical Outlook
The USD/INR pair maintains a bullish trajectory, trading above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 63.35, suggesting continued upward momentum.
Immediate resistance is seen at 87.40, with a break above potentially propelling the pair toward the all-time high of 88.00, and further to 88.50. On the downside, initial support lies at 86.48, followed by 86.14 and 85.65—levels that could attract buying interest if tested.
Market participants now await the US PCE data, which could influence the Fed’s monetary policy outlook and set the direction for USD/INR in the near term.
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